When it comes time to count the ballots after an election, vote totals for different candidates usually fluctuate significantly, depending on which polling stations get their results in first.
That’s likely to be the case in the hotly contested Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon riding. Results from 2015 show the various parties can expect to get their votes in different places in the sprawling riding, which extends from Lillooet and Cache Creek in the Interior south to Abbotsford.
Poll-by-poll results from 2015 show the variation in political views. In the map below, we show which two polling districts were friendliest for each party. Click here for a similar map for the Abbotsford riding.
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(The riding had about 150 polling districts. It includes all of Cache Creek, Ashcroft, Lillooet, Boston Bar, Yale, Agassiz, Harrison Hot Springs and Mission. It also includes outlying areas of Hope and a large chunk of Abbotsford north of Maclure/Upper Maclure and Bateman roads. A chunk of Abbotsford to the south of Highway 1 and west of Mt. Lehman Road is in the Langley-Aldergrove riding.)
We’ve left off mobile polls and others that are unclear about their location. Several of those polls – which often are located near seniors’ residences – brought in some of the Conservatives’ highest vote shares.
We also placed markers for each polling district centrally within the area. Some polling districts are weirdly shaped, but their locations give a general indication of where each party is strongest.
Liberal Jati Sidhu will hope to pull in his highest vote totals in the northwestern part of Abbotsford’s urban area, particularly in neighbourhoods with high numbers of Indo-Canadians.
Conservative Brad Vis does best in rural areas, particularly on Matsqui Prarie and in Bradner in Abbotsford.
The NDP, Liberals and Conservatives were all highly competitive in Mission. In Agassiz, the Conservatives were strong – although not to the same extent as in rural Abbotsford. Harrison Hot Springs saw the Greens eat into the NDP vote, with the Liberals and Conservatives roughly split. The best riding for the Green Party was in Lake Errock.
The Conservatives dominated in Cache Creek, although vote totals were closer in Ashcroft.
The NDP, meanwhile, dominated in Lillooet and Lytton.
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