A new Angus Reid poll of would-be voters gives provincial New Democrats under Premier David Eby a double-digit lead over the Conservative Party of BC and BC United.
The poll of “leaning and decided” voters gives New Democrats 43 per cent, with their two closest rivals at 22 per each. BC Greens sit at 12 per cent.
The online survey released Monday (March 18) and taken Feb. 28 to March 6 among 809 British Columbians broadly matches previous polls showing the NDP well ahead, with the provincial Conservatives and BC United splitting most of the anti-NDP vote.
One measure of this split appears in the Angus Reid poll, which compares current intentions of would-be voters with their past choices.
Almost all of the surveyed British Columbians who voted for the NDP in 2020 (311) would vote again for the party in 2024 (286). By contrast, BC United would draw 35 per cent fewer voters in 2024 than it did in 2020 when the party was still known as the BC Liberals.
Provincial Conservatives, meanwhile, have experienced a surge in popularity.
Whereas 16 of the Angus Reid survey participants had voted for the Conservatives in 2020, 151 would vote for them in 2024. The survey finds little difference between actual Green voters in 2020 (97) and would-be Green voters in 2024 (88).
Overall, these figures broadly confirm past findings that show the rise of the Conservative Party of BC has largely come at the expense of BC United.
But if the NDP is “coasting, at least for now” thanks to what the Angus Reid poll describes as “a fractured opposition and a muddled political picture,” it also points to “potentially concerning” findings for governing Democrats.
While would-be voters consider New Democrats the best choice to deal with housing affordability, health care, public safety and inflation compared to the other parties, at least seven in ten think government is doing a poor job on most issues facing the province.
Just over half — 51 per cent — say it’s time for a change in government.
But this apparent sense of dissatisfaction is not necessarily a new finding, either.
An Abacus Data poll released in December 2023 found just 1 out of 3 surveyed would-be voters consider the province heading in the right direction, suggesting broad dissatisfaction that goes beyond party labels.
Speaking at an unrelated event in Delta, Eby Monday acknowledged the Angus Reid poll.
“First of all, there have been an array of polls,” he said. “The majority of the polls of which I am aware, are very flattering to to the B.C. NDP. But I have seen this movie before. I am always skeptical of polls.
‘There is only one poll that matters. That is the election in October and my job between now and then is to show British Columbians the direction…if the BC NDP were to government again and then, they can vote accordingly.”
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