British Columbia will have a new government on Tuesday night, and Surrey and Delta voters have a key role to play in determining which party will form that government.
The NDP and Liberals evenly split the eight Surrey seats in the past election, with each winning four seats. This continues a longstanding Surrey tradition, with the NDP (and its predecessor the CCF) polling well in North Surrey and Newton, and the Liberals (and predecessors Social Credit and the coalition of the 1940s and early 1950s) doing well in Cloverdale and South Surrey.
In Delta, the NDP have historically done well in North Delta, and South Delta has been firmly on the right side of the spectrum – electing Socreds, Liberals and, in 2009, independent Vicki Huntington.
The final winners of the 10 local seats will likely be at least partially determined by provincial trends, which are usually very fluid in a close election and can change right up to voting day.
It’s pretty safe to say the NDP will easily win the four Surrey seats it now holds, and likely hold Delta-North, where Guy Gentner has retired. NDP candidate and longtime civic politician Sylvia Bishop is most likely to be the new MLA.
The Liberals are almost certain to hold Surrey-White Rock, and Surrey-Cloverdale is most likely to go their way as well. Surrey-Panorama and Surrey-Tynehead, which the Liberals won comfortably in 2009, will be more challenging. The population of both ridings has grown, and neither has an incumbent MLA running.
Stephanie Cadieux, who was Surrey-Panorama’s MLA, is now running in Surrey-Cloverdale. Dave Hayer, 12-year MLA in Tynehead, isn’t running for re-election.
At the start of the campaign, provincial polls suggested that such seats would fall to the NDP. Polls of course are less reliable than ever in predicting how people will actually vote, and do not take local campaigns into account.
The Liberals and NDP have both waged vigorous campaigns in those two important ridings, and every vote will indeed count.
Then there’s Delta-South. Huntington upset B.C. Liberal Wally Oppal, who switched ridings from Vancouver-Fraserview to Delta-South in 2009. But she only won by 32 votes.
Huntington is facing two challengers, Liberal Bruce McDonald and NDP Nic Slater. The race is likely to be between Huntington and McDonald, who served for many years on Delta council. McDonald will do well, but Huntington has the edge as an incumbent and as an independent.
So if the NDP win the two swing seats in Surrey, they will have seven of the 10 local seats. They need to win such seats to pick up a majority.
If the Liberals win one or both seats, they may hold on to power, or will most likely form a strong Opposition. And if Huntington and several other independents are elected, and the Liberal and NDP seat count is close, there is a slim chance there will be a minority government.
There hasn’t been one in B.C. since 1952, when Social Credit was first elected. Such a scenario would make B.C. politics more interesting than ever.
Frank Bucholtz is the editor of The Langley Times. He writes weekly for The Leader.
