It is very difficult to predict what is going to happen in 2014, especially in these unpredictable times when the province’s socioeconomic status seems to be so fragile.
Generally speaking, the province’s, and the Cariboo-Chilcotin’s, longtime economic driver – the forest industry – is headed towards a significant downturn in the near future.
Forestry has been a very stable industry that helped British Columbia keep pace with other provinces that are riding high on economic booms, such as oil and gas production.
Now, our provincial government is turning its attention to mining and liquefied natural gas to replace forestry as B.C.’s economic driver.
So, we are likely to see these new resource extraction industries taking centre stage for a few decades, while we get through the mid-term lumber crisis.
The difference is the forestry is a renewable industry, while the other two are not.
As for the Cariboo-Chilcotin’s socioeconomic standing, a lot is hanging in the balance on the federal government’s impending decision on the New Prosperity Gold-Copper Project.
If it gets the thumbs up from the feds, which would likely contain conditions that would have to be worked through, the timing couldn’t be better to help fill the void in job loss leading up to, and during, the Cariboo-Chilcotin’s Allowable Annual Cut that will be halved to one million cubic metres in 2018.
If Ottawa gives the thumbs down, there will be significant changes in rural communities that are dependent on the forest industry.
Some folks will look at the National Energy Board Joint Review Panel’s recommendation to go forward with the Enbridge pipeline – with 209 conditions – as a positive sign there is a federal appetite resource extraction and export.
Whether this will result in New Prosperity Gold-Copper Project getting the green light from the federal government remains to be seen.
The only thing that is predictable in these two situations is the environmentalist and the affected First Nations are going to continue to butt heads with the projects’ proponents and their supporters.
Another predictable outcome when forestry jobs become harder to find is there will be more and more pressure on groups, such as food banks, women’s centres, family enrichment centres, mental health workers and many others, as they try to patch the holes in the social safety net.
Unemployment tears families apart.
We need the jobs to survive as rural communities.
