One week from today is election day.
Elections are fascinating events. Each person votes for a different reason, selecting a candidate they would like to represent them. Yet when all the votes are counted, the electorate collectively sends some pretty obvious messages.
One of the best examples of that phenomenon came in the Quebec provincial election last September. Many voters were clearly tired of the Liberals, who were plagued by a number of scandals and had been in office for nine years.
Yet they weren’t ready to give absolute power (because that’s what a majority government confers) to the Parti Quebecois. Quebec voters know the PQ is the alternative party, and a good number support its separatist aims, but nowhere near a majority.
Voters collectively decided it was time for a change, but they didn’t want to give the PQ unbridled power without some checks in place. So they voted in enough Liberals, along with members of the new CAQ party and a few others, and denied the PQ a majority government.
Judging from how the government has acted since it was elected, it’s a good thing they did. The PQ has come up with a number of schemes that are designed to hurt Quebec residents in the name of harassing English-speaking residents and denying opportunities to many French-speaking residents, all in the name of getting residents ready for yet another referendum at some future date.
There are similiarities to the Quebec situation here in B.C. A majority of voters want change, but many of those same voters don’t want the NDP to form a government. Yet they are really the only alternative party ready to do so — the Greens and Conservatives are far from ready for such a task.
The polls cannot be counted on as a reliable indication of what will happen on May 14. They are not nearly as reliable in predicting possible results on voting day as they once were. Both the Quebec and Alberta results last year proved that.
It seems to me that, if enough B.C. voters were so inclined, it would be possible for them to elect an NDP minority government. With the NDP in charge, the governing party would change, but there would be checks on power in place.
The only way this could happen is if the Liberals win enough seats to form a meaningful opposition; the five independents with a good shot at winning seats are all victorious; and there are enough Conservatives and Greens elected to deny the NDP a majority.
The reverse is also possible, though less likely — a Liberal minority government.
It must be stressed that a minority government scenario is not too likely. It must appeal to a large enough number of voters who decide individually to elect independents, Conservatives and Greens, in addition to the expected NDP and Liberal victors.
There may well be enough NDP voters to give the party a majority government, and the BC Liberals still have a chance.
It will be interesting to see how B.C. voters decide to proceed.
