i
story will record that Michael Ignatieff lost Canada’s 41st federal election on May 2, 2011. But he was actually defeated on May 12, 2009.
That was the day the Conservatives launched the most effective political ad buy in Canadian history — the “Michael Ignatieff: Just Visiting” campaign. Up until then the Liberals held a modest but significant lead in the polls.
Afterward, the Liberals tanked and Ignatieff’s popularity never recovered.
One of my regular rituals before predicting the outcome of any election is to canvas friends and acquaintances about the campaign. Usually, folks want to talk about the prime minister or the economy. Not this time. Because it was all about Ignatieff:
“I’m not voting for an American!”
“I’m a Liberal but I won’t vote for a guy whose name I can’t pronounce!”
“We’ve got to stop that guy from turning us into the 51st State.”
I was taken aback. I knew Ignatieff was unpopular, but the level of vitriol was palpable and nearly ubiquitous. So it wasn’t a surprise to me when his support started drifting to the NDP.
There’s a maxim in politics. You can only tell who’s winning the television campaign by turning off the sound. Harper looks serene, comforting; almost sleepy. Ignatieff with finger wagging, evokes a disapproving schoolmaster. Gilles Duceppe comes across as angry — at times almost apoplectic. And Jack Layton appears happy and approachable. He’s the guy you’d like to have a beer with. Is it any surprise then that Layton and Harper have done well, while Ignatieff and Duceppe have not?
So why did Ignatieff force an election when he was starting 20 points behind?
Because politicians are disconnected. If they don’t know the price of milk, how could they even begin to guess how unpopular they are?
There is no surer way to tell if a campaign is in trouble than when it starts attacking the media. Recently, Ignatieff began complaining that the NDP was getting a “free ride.”
It calls to mind British politico Enoch Powell who opined, “For a politician to complain about the press is like a ship’s captain complaining about the sea.”
So where does that leave us for Monday’s election? If the majority of pollsters are right (Nanos, Environics, Ipsos Reid, Innovative Research), the Conservatives are on their way to a comfortable victory and perhaps a bare majority.
If Ekos is correct, the NDP will exceed 100 seats and form a governing coalition with the Liberals. One thing is certain. At least one pollster has it dead wrong.
So what are my predictions? Because the weekend could still bring a host of surprises, I’m being cautious. I’m forecasting a Tory minority government with 150 seats, including Nanaimo-Alberni.
As for the NDP, I think their surge in popularity will give them a plurality of seats in la Belle Province and official opposition status with 75 members of parliament.
The Blocquistes are a spent force. Unless they can stop their indisputable slide in the polls, they’ll win fewer than 30 seats.
The Liberals face significant losses in their only remaining redoubts: Toronto, Montreal and the Atlantic. Expect them to lose at least six seats in the GTA and probably a half dozen more in Montreal and the Maritimes. They’ll be hard pressed to hold more than 53 seats.
It appears that Stephen Harper has finally decimated the Liberal party he so despises. But, in doing so, he may have created winning conditions for the very coalition he sought to conquer.
This much is certain. We face a sea change in Canadian politics.
— Ray Smit is a regular News columnist.
