Environment Minister George Heyman called the final agreement reached at COP 28 a “step forward.” But he also acknowledged that it could have “sent a more positive signal” through stronger language around the phasing out of fossil fuels rather than transitioning away from them.
The non-binding agreement reached this week in Dubai by almost 200 nations calls for the “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner…so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.”
Other aspects of the agreement call for the tripling of renewable energy by 2030 and steps to cut down the use of coal and methane. The agreement also calls for the accelerating use of nuclear power and yet-to-proven-and-still-expensive technologies to capture carbon.
Heyman said the agreement recognizes the world finds itself in a crisis, adding that the impacts of climate change are appearing faster than many had expected.
“They are already very significant in different parts of the world, including British Columbia and northern Canada and that they will get significantly worse if globally, we don’t take action,” he said. “So the formal recognition that fossil fuels are the single-biggest source of greenhouse gases and we need to address that and face it and be honest about it is a significant step forward and we welcome that.”
Heyman said the agreement was definitely better than the worst possible outcome, “which would have been to have a statement full of platitudes, indicating no desire for action whatsoever and I’m pleased that did not happen.”
Heyman acknowledged that the effects of the agreement won’t be known because it lacks an enforcement mechanism and relies on the understanding of the world that is facing a collective crisis that will only get worse without action. “I’m enough of an optimist or pragmatist — you take your pick — to say that we just need to keep working toward a positive result in emission reductions and addressing climate change.”
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But if COP28 recognizes the severity of the situation, many voice consider it insufficient.
Speaking on German television, Ottmar Edenhoffer, a leading climate change expert as director and chief economist of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said the agreement was better than feared, but much worse relative to what is necessary, a perspective likely shared by many island nations lamented the agreement’s lack of ambition and teeth.
Consider the numbers. The International Energy Agency has calculated the Dubai commitments would leave the world 70 per cent short of the necessary cuts in GHGs to still reach the goal of limiting the global rise in temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
But others have hailed it as a historic breakthrough, with some saying it seals the end of the fossil fuel area.
Peter McCartney, climate campaigner with the Wilderness Committee, said the agreement is not as strong as it should have been. But it is a “clear demand” for oil and gas production to drop as quickly as possible. “One simply does not build new liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants and tar sands pipelines if you believe the words of the agreement the whole world just signed,” McCartney said.
COP28 shows the incoherency of Canada’s climate policy when it comes to oil and gas industry and fossil fuel exports, McCartney added. “Provincial and federal governments continue to operate as if the rest of the world is not actively working to reduce its use of these products,” he said.
Heyman said investment decisions are made by proponents.
“Contrary to what many people claim, we don’t simply support every LNG project that comes along. We have clear conditions. When we released the CleanBC plan in 2018, the emissions from LNG Canada Phase 1 were modelled in that. We have since brought in a new energy action framework that says any proposal in or entering the environmental assessment process must have zero-emission facilities by 2030 and we have committed to an oil and gas emission cap to reach the 3o t0 38 per cent (reduction in GHGs) target. In the end, this is about emissions and that is what we are focused on.”
As a sub-national actor, B.C. had no seat at the table, but the province had a presence at the conference during its first week through Heyman.
“I had good discussions with my federal counterpart Steven Guilbeault and I had many useful discussions (with various actors) as well as participated in some important panels on both climate action and mitigation, as well as climate adaption and preparedness.”
Heyman said he “urged” Guilbeault “once again” to “ensure that British Columbians can benefit from federal support for electric heat pumps, not just the Atlantic provinces.”
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Heyman said the two ministers compared their respective government’s work on emission caps for the oil and gas sector. “They announced a framework for theirs, we are working toward finalizing our framework,” Heyman said. “We want to take care that we don’t put separate administrative burdens on industry, so we will align to the extent that the federal government’s cap achieves the goal that British Columbia has committed to.”
Heyman said he and Guilbeault share the view along with other provinces, that “we need significant action on climate change,” adding “it is not enough to say ‘we are not the biggest polluter in the world.’”
Heyman said he and Guilbeault were also trying to send the message that environmental protection and economic growth are reconcilable. “While we have reduced our emissionsfive per cent since 2018, the year that we introduced the CleanBC plan, we have also led major provinces in Canada in economic growth over the same period in time.”
Ultimately, sub-nationals “taking action” have shown national governments that there is a “willingess” to move forward, Heyman said.
“I think it drives them, but I can’t emperically demonstrate that,” he said. “But I know that when California and B.C. discuss clean energy technologies like hydrogen, discuss proposals to decarbonize medium and heavy duty transportation, we align our clean fuel standards, when adopt similiar standards on electric vehicles, we create larger markets that can have greater success.”
That alignment process may deepen in the future.
“We also had a very productive discussion about our different forms of carbon pricing and how we might align those possibly in the future,” Heyman said.
@wolfgangdepner
wolfgang.depner@blackpress.ca
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